Welcome back to “The TAB,” a publication that curates relevant-right-now developments in behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) that I think are most worth your attention. Thanks for being a reader, and if you find it helpful, please consider sharing with your networks.
Every other Thursday,chat a new issue of the TAB will arrive with operationally useful updates for professionals in BTAM. Every issue is researched, written, and edited by me. No AI-generated articles and no recycled summaries—just my assessment of what matters and why. And it’s free to subscribe.
Spotlight read: Incels, violence, and the search for somewhere to intervene
Incels—”involuntary celibates”—have quite varied beliefs, including about violence and women.
We’re getting better at understanding how a concerning version of that identity—one organized around misogyny and grievance—seems to develop through interactions between the person, his development, and the world.
A new scoping review identified hundreds of biopsychosocial factors that may play a role in this identify formation and in sustaining it, sorted by developmental stage. It was this sorting that I found especially helpful.
While psychological factors are likely high-impact when they can be addressed, social factors might represent more reliable intervention opportunities where they can be approached by strategies less reliant on buy-in from the person of concern than mental health assistance is. These include various facets of social rejection and exclusion; bullying and other victimization; small support systems; material, financial, and housing insecurity; and law enforcement ineffectiveness.
There are no data in support of incel “deradicalization” techniques, so intervention likely shouldn’t focus on trying to change anyone’s worldview. Psychosocial supports and disengagement are probably the name of the game at this point.
2026 was a big year for published studies on incels and violence. I lost count by mid-summer. Below the fold, I examine the practical takeaways from the ones I found most pertinent to our work.
A new study testing AI chatbots’ responses to distress + delusion
A user’s distress alone isn't the main danger of unsafe behavior from an AI chatbot; distress wrapped in delusion is. In this study, chatbots generally steered distressed users toward help. When the same distress came packaged in delusional beliefs, several models stopped intervening.
Watch for long conversations in which the chatbot plays along. Researchers hypothesize that the longer a chatbot goes along with a user's premise, the harder it becomes for it to change course, even at a crisis point.
Spiritual and messianic beliefs by the user merit extra attention. Among the AI models that struggled with safe responses, these themes brought the most risk. In interviews, consider asking how the chatbot responds to the person's unusual beliefs, especially beliefs about being chosen or on a mission.
The model matters. Safety performance varied widely: some models held up across every scenario, and others collapsed. Where possible, find out which chatbot a person of concern is using, and stay current on known safety issues with that model.
I previously wrote about human-AI chatbot delusions spirals, what drives them, and what our window of opportunity to intervene looks like. Below the fold, I discuss a new study by Aquilina et al, where a team tried to measure the performance of AI chatbot models when confronted with emotional distress + delusional framing by a user.
SIGNALS—What I’m watching in BTAM
The ADL just launched a new resource hub called Understanding Targeted and Mass Violence Involving Youth. Per ADL, it features:
New explainers on memetic violence, the Com network, the True Crime Community, Satanic neo-Nazism, the gore forum WatchPeopleDie, and the role antisemitism can play in these spaces.
Interactive tools, including a global map of True Crime Community-linked attacks and plots, plus a memetic violence field guide to help decode some of the terms, symbols, and phrases used in these online communities.
Lots more. I just took a quick drive through the site and picked up some new lingo I wasn’t up to speed on. Worth checking out.
Iowa is rolling out a new BTAM model called the Iowa School Safety Assessment and Management (I-SAMM) Program. Although K-12 threat assessment teams are not mandated in Iowa, this will be a free resource to all Iowa schools. The underlying foundations of I-SAMM are not yet clear, though the state has said it will be based on Iowa’s juvenile delinquency system.
That’s it for this issue. Got any special topics you’d like to see covered? Just reply to this email or comment online. I read every message.